An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina

A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus (Covid-19) has spread worldwide, inducing an epidemic still active in Argentina. In this chapter, we present a case study using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) diffusion model of fractional order in time to analyze the evolution of the epidemic...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Santos, Juan Enrique, Carcione, José M., Savioli, Gabriela B., Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes
Formato:	Libro Capitulo de libro
Lenguaje:	Inglés
Publicado:	Springer 2021
Materias:	Ciencias Exactas Ciencias Médicas Fractional Differential Equations Numerical investigation of stability of solutions Medical epidemiology
Acceso en línea:	http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/146433
Aporte de:	SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata

id	I19-R120-10915-146433
record_format	dspace
institution	Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str	I-19
repository_str	R-120
collection	SEDICI (UNLP)
language	Inglés
topic	Ciencias Exactas Ciencias Médicas Fractional Differential Equations Numerical investigation of stability of solutions Medical epidemiology Medical epidemiology
spellingShingle	Ciencias Exactas Ciencias Médicas Fractional Differential Equations Numerical investigation of stability of solutions Medical epidemiology Medical epidemiology Santos, Juan Enrique Carcione, José M. Savioli, Gabriela B. Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina
topic_facet	Ciencias Exactas Ciencias Médicas Fractional Differential Equations Numerical investigation of stability of solutions Medical epidemiology Medical epidemiology
description	A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus (Covid-19) has spread worldwide, inducing an epidemic still active in Argentina. In this chapter, we present a case study using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) diffusion model of fractional order in time to analyze the evolution of the epidemic in Buenos Aires and neighboring areas (Region Metropolitana de Buenos Aires, (RMBA)) comprising about 15 million inhabitants. In the SEIR model, individuals are divided into four classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The SEIR model of fractional order allows for the incorporation of memory, with hereditary properties of the system, being a generalization of the classic SEIR first-order system, where such effects are ignored. Furthermore, the fractional model provides one additional parameter to obtain a better fit of the data. The parameters of the model are calibrated by using as data the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour the data, we show a set of cases with different values of the lockdown parameters, fatality rate, and incubation and infectious periods. The different reproduction ratios \(R_0\) and infection fatality rates (IFR) so obtained indicate the results may differ from recent reported values, constituting possible alternative solutions. A comparison with results obtained with the classic SEIR model is also included. The analysis allows us to study how isolation and social distancing measures affect the time evolution of the epidemic.
format	Libro Capitulo de libro
author	Santos, Juan Enrique Carcione, José M. Savioli, Gabriela B. Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes
author_facet	Santos, Juan Enrique Carcione, José M. Savioli, Gabriela B. Gauzellino, Patricia Mercedes
author_sort	Santos, Juan Enrique
title	An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina
title_short	An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina
title_full	An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina
title_fullStr	An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina
title_full_unstemmed	An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina
title_sort	seir epidemic model of fractional order to analyze the evolution of the covid-19 epidemic in argentina
publisher	Springer
publishDate	2021
url	http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/146433
work_keys_str_mv	AT santosjuanenrique anseirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina AT carcionejosem anseirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina AT savioligabrielab anseirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina AT gauzellinopatriciamercedes anseirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina AT santosjuanenrique seirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina AT carcionejosem seirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina AT savioligabrielab seirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina AT gauzellinopatriciamercedes seirepidemicmodeloffractionalordertoanalyzetheevolutionofthecovid19epidemicinargentina
bdutipo_str	Repositorios
_version_	1764820461228654594

An SEIR Epidemic Model of Fractional Order to Analyze the Evolution of the Covid-19 Epidemic in Argentina

Ejemplares similares