SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications

An epidemic model with births and deaths is considered on a two-dimensional L × L lattice. Each individual can have global infective contacts according to the standard susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model rules or local infective contacts with their nearest neighbors. We propose a deterministi...

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Autores principales: Maltz, Alberto Leonardo, Fabricius, Gabriel
Formato: Articulo
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2016
Materias:
Ciencias Exactas
Epidemics
SIR
Lattice
Deterministic model
Pair approximation
Pertussis
Acceso en línea:http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/131376
Aporte de:
SEDICI (UNLP) de Universidad Nacional de La Plata
id I19-R120-10915-131376
record_format dspace
institution Universidad Nacional de La Plata
institution_str I-19
repository_str R-120
collection SEDICI (UNLP)
language Inglés
topic Ciencias Exactas
Epidemics
SIR
Lattice
Deterministic model
Pair approximation
Pertussis
spellingShingle Ciencias Exactas
Epidemics
SIR
Lattice
Deterministic model
Pair approximation
Pertussis
Maltz, Alberto Leonardo
Fabricius, Gabriel
SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications
topic_facet Ciencias Exactas
Epidemics
SIR
Lattice
Deterministic model
Pair approximation
Pertussis
description An epidemic model with births and deaths is considered on a two-dimensional L × L lattice. Each individual can have global infective contacts according to the standard susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model rules or local infective contacts with their nearest neighbors. We propose a deterministic approach to this model and, for the parameters corresponding to pertussis and rubella in the prevaccine era, verify that there is a close agreement with the stochastic simulations when epidemic spread or endemic stationarity is considered. We also find that our approach captures the characteristic features of the dynamic behavior of the system after a sudden decrease in global contacts that may arise as a consequence of health care measures. By using the deterministic approach, we are able to characterize the exponential growth of the epidemic behavior and analyze the stability of the system at the stationary values. Since the deterministic approximation captures the essential features of the disease transmission dynamics of the stochastic model, it provides a useful tool for performing systematic studies as a function of the model parameters. We give an example of this potentiality by analyzing the likelihood of the endemic state to become extinct when the weight of the global contacts is drastically reduced.
format Articulo
Articulo
author Maltz, Alberto Leonardo
Fabricius, Gabriel
author_facet Maltz, Alberto Leonardo
Fabricius, Gabriel
author_sort Maltz, Alberto Leonardo
title SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications
title_short SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications
title_full SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications
title_fullStr SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications
title_full_unstemmed SIR model with local and global infective contacts: A deterministic approach and applications
title_sort sir model with local and global infective contacts: a deterministic approach and applications
publishDate 2016
url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/131376
work_keys_str_mv AT maltzalbertoleonardo sirmodelwithlocalandglobalinfectivecontactsadeterministicapproachandapplications
AT fabriciusgabriel sirmodelwithlocalandglobalinfectivecontactsadeterministicapproachandapplications
bdutipo_str Repositorios
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