Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina

Many experts, policymakers, and journalists had been enthusiastically advising Argentina to abandon the currency board arrangement that had been in place since 1991, on the grounds that it was choking its economy. They were disappointed when Argentina’s attempt to devalue “just a little” ended up in...

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Autor principal: Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
Formato: Artículo científico
Publicado: Universidad Central de Venezuela 2003
Materias:
Acceso en línea:http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=36490102
http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=ve/ve-004&d=36490102oai
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id I16-R122-36490102oai
record_format dspace
institution Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales
institution_str I-16
repository_str R-122
collection Red de Bibliotecas Virtuales de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO)
topic Economía y Finanzas
Argentina
devaluation
currency boards
optimal monetary policy
time inconsistency
spellingShingle Economía y Finanzas
Argentina
devaluation
currency boards
optimal monetary policy
time inconsistency
Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina
topic_facet Economía y Finanzas
Argentina
devaluation
currency boards
optimal monetary policy
time inconsistency
description Many experts, policymakers, and journalists had been enthusiastically advising Argentina to abandon the currency board arrangement that had been in place since 1991, on the grounds that it was choking its economy. They were disappointed when Argentina’s attempt to devalue “just a little” ended up in a collapse of its currency and real GDP. We argue that the reason why the devaluation “drug” didn’t cure Argentina is because the doctors who recommended it overlooked that the perfect information conditions required for the medication to work properly were not met by that country. We propose an alternative “diagnosis,” according to which the attempt to devalue “just a little” ends up in higher depreciation and inflation rates than originally intended. This prediction, consistent with the evidence for Argentina, suggests that non-state contingent (“rigid”,) monetary regimes, such as a currency board or outright dollarization, might dominate in a welfare sense, by virtue of a transparency-inducing feature, state-contingent (“flexible”) policies in countries like Argentina, where economic agents are unable to satisfactorily monitor the policymakers’ actions, as well as the underlying decision process.
format Artículo científico
Artículo científico
author Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
author_facet Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
author_sort Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga
title Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina
title_short Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina
title_full Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina
title_fullStr Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure Argentina
title_sort conjectures on why a devaluation did not cure argentina
publisher Universidad Central de Venezuela
publishDate 2003
url http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=36490102
http://biblioteca.clacso.edu.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=ve/ve-004&d=36490102oai
work_keys_str_mv AT carlosejmzarazaga conjecturesonwhyadevaluationdidnotcureargentina
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