Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra
Floods are the most common disaster in our country, producing the largest number of affected and damaging infrastructure and private property. In this paper, a black box model called functional networks is presented. This model was used to forecast water levels in flatland courses and was applied in...
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Formato: | Artículo revista |
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CURIHAM: Centro Universitario Rosario de Investigaciones Hidroambientales Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura. Universidad Nacional de Rosario Director: Dr. Ing. Hernán Stenta Riobamba 245 bis, 2000 Rosario (Santa Fe), Argentina. Telefa
2014
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Acceso en línea: | https://cuadernosdelcuriham.unr.edu.ar/index.php/CURIHAM/article/view/86 |
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I15-R229-article-86 |
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record_format |
ojs |
institution |
Universidad Nacional de Rosario |
institution_str |
I-15 |
repository_str |
R-229 |
container_title_str |
Cuadernos del CURIHAM |
language |
Español |
format |
Artículo revista |
topic |
modelos de caja negra, redes funcionales, pronóstico de niveles, cuencas de llanura. Black box models Functional networks Water level forecast Plain watersheds |
spellingShingle |
modelos de caja negra, redes funcionales, pronóstico de niveles, cuencas de llanura. Black box models Functional networks Water level forecast Plain watersheds Scuderi, Carlos Riccardi, Gerardo Zimmermann, Erik Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra |
topic_facet |
modelos de caja negra, redes funcionales, pronóstico de niveles, cuencas de llanura. Black box models Functional networks Water level forecast Plain watersheds |
author |
Scuderi, Carlos Riccardi, Gerardo Zimmermann, Erik |
author_facet |
Scuderi, Carlos Riccardi, Gerardo Zimmermann, Erik |
author_sort |
Scuderi, Carlos |
title |
Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra |
title_short |
Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra |
title_full |
Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra |
title_fullStr |
Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra |
title_sort |
pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra |
description |
Floods are the most common disaster in our country, producing the largest number of affected and damaging infrastructure and private property. In this paper, a black box model called functional networks is presented. This model was used to forecast water levels in flatland courses and was applied in the Gran Rosario basins. The input variables are rainfall and water level linked to a time t0, while the output is given by predicted water levels associated with different time horizons tpi. From the observed events, on average 10 for each gage, all combinations are calculated to form two groups: learning and validation. Model evaluation is done through various statistical index, including: relative and absolute maximum difference in peak level, coefficient of efficiency of Nash-Sutcliffe, root mean square error and coefficients of the regression line. For the results presented in this paper mean values in difference peak level for 6 hours forecasting was 0.27 m in learning and 0.33 m in validation. The potential of the model is that it can be applied in any basin with precipitation data and levels. |
publisher |
CURIHAM: Centro Universitario Rosario de Investigaciones Hidroambientales Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura. Universidad Nacional de Rosario Director: Dr. Ing. Hernán Stenta Riobamba 245 bis, 2000 Rosario (Santa Fe), Argentina. Telefa |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://cuadernosdelcuriham.unr.edu.ar/index.php/CURIHAM/article/view/86 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT scudericarlos pronosticodealturasencursosdellanuramedianteelusodeunmodelodecajanegra AT riccardigerardo pronosticodealturasencursosdellanuramedianteelusodeunmodelodecajanegra AT zimmermannerik pronosticodealturasencursosdellanuramedianteelusodeunmodelodecajanegra |
first_indexed |
2023-05-18T23:05:45Z |
last_indexed |
2023-05-18T23:05:45Z |
_version_ |
1766275044533600256 |
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I15-R229-article-862022-02-16T13:49:27Z Pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura mediante el uso de un modelo de caja negra Scuderi, Carlos Riccardi, Gerardo Zimmermann, Erik modelos de caja negra, redes funcionales, pronóstico de niveles, cuencas de llanura. Black box models Functional networks Water level forecast Plain watersheds Floods are the most common disaster in our country, producing the largest number of affected and damaging infrastructure and private property. In this paper, a black box model called functional networks is presented. This model was used to forecast water levels in flatland courses and was applied in the Gran Rosario basins. The input variables are rainfall and water level linked to a time t0, while the output is given by predicted water levels associated with different time horizons tpi. From the observed events, on average 10 for each gage, all combinations are calculated to form two groups: learning and validation. Model evaluation is done through various statistical index, including: relative and absolute maximum difference in peak level, coefficient of efficiency of Nash-Sutcliffe, root mean square error and coefficients of the regression line. For the results presented in this paper mean values in difference peak level for 6 hours forecasting was 0.27 m in learning and 0.33 m in validation. The potential of the model is that it can be applied in any basin with precipitation data and levels. Las inundaciones son el desastre más frecuente en nuestro país, produciendo la mayor cantidad de afectados y daños materiales a la infraestructura y a la propiedad. En este trabajo se presenta un tipo de modelo de caja negra denominado de redes funcionales, usado para pronóstico de alturas en cursos de llanura, aplicado en cuencas del Gran Rosario. Las variables de entrada son precipitación y nivel vinculado a un tiempo t 0 , mientras que la salida está dada por niveles pronosticados para diferentes horizontes temporales t pi . A partir de los eventos observados, en promedio 10 por limnímetro, se calculan todas las combinaciones para constituir dos grupos: aprendizaje y validación. La evaluación de los modelos se efectúa por medio de distintos estadísticos, entre ellos: diferencia máxima relativa y absoluta en el nivel pico, coeficiente de eficiencia de Nash-Sutcliffe, raíz del error cuadrático medio y coeficientes de la recta de regresión. Para los resultados presentados en este trabajo se alcanzaron valores medios en la diferencia en el nivel pico para 6 horas de pronóstico de 0.27 m en aprendizaje y de 0.33 m en validación. La potencialidad del modelo es que puede ser aplicado en cualquier cuenca con datos de precipitación y niveles. CURIHAM: Centro Universitario Rosario de Investigaciones Hidroambientales Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura. Universidad Nacional de Rosario Director: Dr. Ing. Hernán Stenta Riobamba 245 bis, 2000 Rosario (Santa Fe), Argentina. Telefa 2014-12-31 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://cuadernosdelcuriham.unr.edu.ar/index.php/CURIHAM/article/view/86 10.35305/curiham.v20i0.86 Cuadernos del CURIHAM is a half-year publication of the Centro Universitario de Rosario of hydro-environmental research directed by Adelma Mancinelli. It is dedicated to spreading the results of basic and applied research as well as technological innovations on the realm of hidro-environmental issues. It may include field study results, interdisciplinary studies or studies on the state of art on the field: basic hydraulics, fluvial and hydrodinamics, superficial and underground hydrology, urban and stochastic hydrology, planning and management of hydric resources, environmental evaluation, pollution and quality of the water, politics and water legislation, regional hydro-environmental management, hydraulic construction, methods and techniques and everything related to hydro-environmental sciences.; Vol. 20 (2014); 1-31 Cuadernos del CURIHAM; Vol. 20 (2014); 1-31 2683-8168 spa https://cuadernosdelcuriham.unr.edu.ar/index.php/CURIHAM/article/view/86/73 Derechos de autor 2014 Carlos Scuderi, Gerardo Riccardi, Erik Zimmermann https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 |