SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru
The SARS-CoV-2 virus from Europe has reached Peru on March 5 and since March 16 a state of national emergency has been declared, leading to the confinement of the entire population. The objective of this study is to characterize the epidemic evolution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) applying the S...
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Universidad Nacional Cba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Secretaria de Ciencia y Tecnología
2021
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| Acceso en línea: | https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/31142 |
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I10-R10-article-311422021-11-18T12:43:09Z SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru Modelo SIR de la tendencia pandémica de COVID-19 en Perú Modelo SIR da tendência pandêmica de COVID-19 no Peru Huarachi Olivera, Ronald Eleazar Lazarte RIvera, Antonio Mateo Coronavirus epidemic basic reproduction number coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia Número básico de reprodução número básico de reprodução The SARS-CoV-2 virus from Europe has reached Peru on March 5 and since March 16 a state of national emergency has been declared, leading to the confinement of the entire population. The objective of this study is to characterize the epidemic evolution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) applying the SIR model (Susceptible-Infectious-recovered or deceased) during a period of 200 days. The time series data of COVID-19 from March 06 to May 14, 2020 of the Peruvian Ministry of Health was used, presenting estimated cases by varying the basic reproduction number R0. According to the SIR model, the peak of those infected occurs shortly after May 30 from the beginning of the epidemic (day 86) where the total number of infected cases decreases to R0 = 1.5. The results suggest that Peru's current stringent measures can effectively prevent the spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained even with efficient results. El virus SARS-CoV-2 procedente de Europa ha llegado a Perú el 5 Marzo y desde el 16 de marzo se ha declarado el estado de emergencia nacional llevando al confinamiento a toda la población. El objetivo de este estudio es caracterizar la evolución epidémica de la enfermedad de coronavirus (COVID-19) aplicando el modelo SIR (Susceptibles-Infecciosos-recuperados o fallecidos) durante un periodo de 200 días. Se utilizó los datos de series temporales de COVID-19 del 06 de marzo al 14 de mayo de 2020 del ministerio de salud peruano planteando casos estimados variando el número básico de reproducción R0. Según el modelo SIR, el pico de infectados se produce poco después del 30 de Mayo desde el inicio de la epidemia (día 86) donde disminuye el número total de casos infectados a R0=1,5. Los resultados sugieren que las estrictas medidas actuales de Perú pueden prevenir eficazmente la propagación de COVID-19 y deben mantenerse aun obteniendo resultados eficientes. O vírus SARS-CoV-2 da Europa chegou ao Peru em 5 de março e desde 16 de março foi declarado estado de emergência nacional, levando ao confinamento de toda a população. O objetivo deste estudo é caracterizar a evolução epidêmica da doença coronavírus (COVID-19) aplicando o modelo SIR (Susceptível-Infeccioso-recuperado ou falecido) durante um período de 200 dias. Foram utilizados os dados da série temporal COVID-19 de 06 de março a 14 de maio de 2020 do Ministério da Saúde do Peru, levantando casos estimados variando o número de reprodução básico R0. De acordo com o modelo SIR, o pico de infectados ocorre logo após 30 de maio do início da epidemia (dia 86) onde o número total de casos infectados diminui para R0 = 1,5. Os resultados sugerem que as atuais medidas rigorosas do Peru podem prevenir efetivamente a disseminação do COVID-19 e devem ser mantidas mesmo com resultados eficientes. Universidad Nacional Cba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Secretaria de Ciencia y Tecnología 2021-08-23 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf text/html https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/31142 Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Médicas de Córdoba.; Vol. 78 No. 3 (2021); 236-242 Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Médicas de Córdoba; Vol. 78 Núm. 3 (2021); 236-242 Revista da Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Córdoba; v. 78 n. 3 (2021); 236-242 1853-0605 0014-6722 10.31053/1853.0605.v78.n3 spa https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/31142/34720 https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/31142/34771 Derechos de autor 2021 Universidad Nacional de Córdoba http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0 |
| institution |
Universidad Nacional de Córdoba |
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I-10 |
| repository_str |
R-10 |
| container_title_str |
Revistas de la UNC |
| language |
Español |
| format |
Artículo revista |
| topic |
Coronavirus epidemic basic reproduction number coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia Número básico de reprodução número básico de reprodução |
| spellingShingle |
Coronavirus epidemic basic reproduction number coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia Número básico de reprodução número básico de reprodução Huarachi Olivera, Ronald Eleazar Lazarte RIvera, Antonio Mateo SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru |
| topic_facet |
Coronavirus epidemic basic reproduction number coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia número básico de reproducción Coronavirus epidemia Número básico de reprodução número básico de reprodução |
| author |
Huarachi Olivera, Ronald Eleazar Lazarte RIvera, Antonio Mateo |
| author_facet |
Huarachi Olivera, Ronald Eleazar Lazarte RIvera, Antonio Mateo |
| author_sort |
Huarachi Olivera, Ronald Eleazar |
| title |
SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru |
| title_short |
SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru |
| title_full |
SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru |
| title_fullStr |
SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru |
| title_full_unstemmed |
SIR model of the pandemic trend of COVID-19 in Peru |
| title_sort |
sir model of the pandemic trend of covid-19 in peru |
| description |
The SARS-CoV-2 virus from Europe has reached Peru on March 5 and since March 16 a state of national emergency has been declared, leading to the confinement of the entire population. The objective of this study is to characterize the epidemic evolution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) applying the SIR model (Susceptible-Infectious-recovered or deceased) during a period of 200 days. The time series data of COVID-19 from March 06 to May 14, 2020 of the Peruvian Ministry of Health was used, presenting estimated cases by varying the basic reproduction number R0. According to the SIR model, the peak of those infected occurs shortly after May 30 from the beginning of the epidemic (day 86) where the total number of infected cases decreases to R0 = 1.5. The results suggest that Peru's current stringent measures can effectively prevent the spread of COVID-19 and should be maintained even with efficient results. |
| publisher |
Universidad Nacional Cba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Secretaria de Ciencia y Tecnología |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/31142 |
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