Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk

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Introduction: The analysis of injuries caused by traffic from a physical and mathematical perspective can help improve road safety strategies. Objective: Predict the dynamics of traffic fatalities in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts for the years 2004 and 2014 in the context of probabilistic...

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Autores principales: Rodríguez Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo, Barrios Arroyave, Freddy, Gélvez Almeida, Elkin, Salazar Torres, Juan, Guarín, Nataly, Mosquera, Cindy, Santos, Laura, Moreno Gallo, Yudith, Giraldo, Laura, Espejo, Jorge
Formato: Artículo revista
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Universidad Nacional Cba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Secretaria de Ciencia y Tecnología 2019
Materias:
traffic accidents
mortality
probability theory
forecasting
accidentes de tránsito
mortalidad
teoría de la probabilidad
predicción.
acidentes de trânsito
mortalidade
teoria da probabilidade
previsões
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/23777
Aporte de:
Revistas de la UNC de Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
id I10-R10-article-23777
record_format ojs
institution Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
institution_str I-10
repository_str R-10
container_title_str Revistas de la UNC
language Español
format Artículo revista
topic traffic accidents
mortality
probability theory
forecasting
accidentes de tránsito
mortalidad
teoría de la probabilidad
predicción.
acidentes de trânsito
mortalidade
teoria da probabilidade
previsões
spellingShingle traffic accidents
mortality
probability theory
forecasting
accidentes de tránsito
mortalidad
teoría de la probabilidad
predicción.
acidentes de trânsito
mortalidade
teoria da probabilidade
previsões
Rodríguez Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo
Barrios Arroyave, Freddy
Gélvez Almeida, Elkin
Salazar Torres, Juan
Guarín, Nataly
Mosquera, Cindy
Santos, Laura
Moreno Gallo, Yudith
Giraldo, Laura
Espejo, Jorge
Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk
topic_facet traffic accidents
mortality
probability theory
forecasting
accidentes de tránsito
mortalidad
teoría de la probabilidad
predicción.
acidentes de trânsito
mortalidade
teoria da probabilidade
previsões
author Rodríguez Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo
Barrios Arroyave, Freddy
Gélvez Almeida, Elkin
Salazar Torres, Juan
Guarín, Nataly
Mosquera, Cindy
Santos, Laura
Moreno Gallo, Yudith
Giraldo, Laura
Espejo, Jorge
author_facet Rodríguez Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo
Barrios Arroyave, Freddy
Gélvez Almeida, Elkin
Salazar Torres, Juan
Guarín, Nataly
Mosquera, Cindy
Santos, Laura
Moreno Gallo, Yudith
Giraldo, Laura
Espejo, Jorge
author_sort Rodríguez Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo
title Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk
title_short Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk
title_full Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk
title_fullStr Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk
title_full_unstemmed Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk
title_sort fatalities by traffic in maryland and massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk
description Introduction: The analysis of injuries caused by traffic from a physical and mathematical perspective can help improve road safety strategies. Objective: Predict the dynamics of traffic fatalities in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts for the years 2004 and 2014 in the context of probabilistic random walk. Methods: An analysis was made of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic per year, in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts between the years 1994-2003 and 1994-2013. The behavior of these values was analyzed as a probabilistic random walk; for this, the probabilistic lengths were found for each year, during the period studied and four probability spaces were analyzed, with which it was possible to analyze their behavior, to establish a prediction of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic for the years 2004 and 2014. Results: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Main conclusion: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Conclusions: the behavior of traffic fatalities in Maryland and Massachusetts presented a predictable self-organization from the context of probabilistic random walk, constituting a useful tool for analyzing the operation of road safety strategies
publisher Universidad Nacional Cba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Secretaria de Ciencia y Tecnología
publishDate 2019
url https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/23777
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first_indexed 2022-08-20T01:26:24Z
last_indexed 2022-08-20T01:26:24Z
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spelling I10-R10-article-237772020-02-26T19:08:42Z Fatalities by traffic in Maryland and Massachusetts evaluated in the context of a probabilistic random walk Fatalidades por tránsito en Maryland y Massachusetts evaluadas en el contexto de una caminata al azar probabilista Fatalidades do trânsito em Maryland e Massachusetts avaliadas no contexto de um passeio aleatório determinista Rodríguez Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo Barrios Arroyave, Freddy Gélvez Almeida, Elkin Salazar Torres, Juan Guarín, Nataly Mosquera, Cindy Santos, Laura Moreno Gallo, Yudith Giraldo, Laura Espejo, Jorge traffic accidents mortality probability theory forecasting accidentes de tránsito mortalidad teoría de la probabilidad predicción. acidentes de trânsito mortalidade teoria da probabilidade previsões Introduction: The analysis of injuries caused by traffic from a physical and mathematical perspective can help improve road safety strategies. Objective: Predict the dynamics of traffic fatalities in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts for the years 2004 and 2014 in the context of probabilistic random walk. Methods: An analysis was made of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic per year, in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts between the years 1994-2003 and 1994-2013. The behavior of these values was analyzed as a probabilistic random walk; for this, the probabilistic lengths were found for each year, during the period studied and four probability spaces were analyzed, with which it was possible to analyze their behavior, to establish a prediction of the number of total fatalities caused by traffic for the years 2004 and 2014. Results: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Main conclusion: The predictions for the years 2014 and 2004 for Maryland and Massachusetts when compared with the real values, the percentage of success was 98%. Conclusions: the behavior of traffic fatalities in Maryland and Massachusetts presented a predictable self-organization from the context of probabilistic random walk, constituting a useful tool for analyzing the operation of road safety strategies Antecedentes: El análisis de los accidentes de tránsito desde una perspectiva física y matemática puede ayudar a mejorar las estrategias viales de seguridad.  Objetivo: Obtener una predicción de la dinámica de fatalidades a causa del tráfico en los estados de Maryland y Massachusetts para los años 2004 y 2014 en el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista. Métodos: Se realizó un análisis del número de fatalidades totales causadas por el tráfico al año, en los estados de Maryland y Massachusetts entre los años 1994-2003 y 1994-2013. El comportamiento de estos valores fue analizado como una caminata al azar probabilista; para ello se hallaron las longitudes probabilistas para cada año, durante el periodo estudiado y se analizaron cuatro espacios de probabilidad, con los que fue posible analizar su comportamiento, para establecer una predicción del número de fatalidades totales causadas por el tráfico para los años 2004 y 2014. Resultados: Las predicciones para los años 2014 y 2004 para Maryland y Massachusetts al ser comparados con los valores reales el porcentaje de acierto fue del 98%. Conclusión principal: el comportamiento de las fatalidades de tráfico en Maryland y Massachusetts presentó una autoorganización predecible desde el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista, constituyéndose como una herramienta útil para el análisis del funcionamiento de las estrategias de seguridad vial. Antecedente: a análise de os acidentes de trânsito de uma perspectiva física e matemática pode ajudar a melhorar nas estratégias rodoviários de segurança. Objetivo: obter uma previsão da dinâmica de fatalidades devido ao tráfico nos Estados da Maryland e Massachusetts para os anos 2004 e 2014 no contexto de um passeio aleatório determinista. Métodos: foi realizada uma análise do número total do fatalidades causadas por o trânsito, nos Estados da Maryland e Massachusetts entre os anos 1994-2003 e 1994-2013. O comportamento dos valores foi analisado como um passeio aleatório determinista; para tal, foram observadas as comprimentos para cada ano, durante o período analisado e foram analisados quatro espaços de probabilidade, com o que foi possível analisar o seu comportamento para determinar uma previsão do número total do fatalidades causadas por o trânsito para os anos 2004 e 2014. Resultados: das previsões para os anos 2004 e 2014 para Maryland y Massachusetts ao ser comparados com os valores reais, da porcentagem de acerto foi de 98%. Conclusão principal: o comportamento do fatalidades causadas por o trânsito na Maryland y Massachusetts apresentou uma auto-organização previsível constituindo-se como uma ferramenta útil para análise de funcionamento das estratégias segurança rodoviária  Universidad Nacional Cba. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Secretaria de Ciencia y Tecnología 2019-08-29 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf text/html https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/23777 Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Médicas de Córdoba.; Vol. 76 No. 3 (2019); 142-147 Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Médicas de Córdoba; Vol. 76 Núm. 3 (2019); 142-147 Revista da Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Córdoba; v. 76 n. 3 (2019); 142-147 1853-0605 0014-6722 10.31053/1853.0605.v76.n3 spa https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/23777/24298 https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/med/article/view/23777/24550 Derechos de autor 2019 Universidad Nacional de Córdoba

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