Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015

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This paper studies the evolution of the poverty rate in relation to two macroeconomic performance indexes. A first simple index of four variables, called EPI, and another more complex called MRE, composed by the simple average of three sub-indexes, a monetary, a real-fiscal and one that measures the...

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Autor principal: Marcarián, Leandro
Formato: Artículo revista
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas 2015
Materias:
Gasto público
Equilibrio
Pobreza
Índice de Desempeño Económico
E21
E66
N10
I32
I38
Public Expenditure
Equilibrium
Poverty
Economic Performance Index
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/14461
Aporte de:
Revistas de la UNC de Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
id I10-R10-article-14461
record_format ojs
spelling I10-R10-article-144612022-02-08T16:39:01Z Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015 La estabilidad macroeconómica, el gasto público social consolidado y sus efectos en la pobreza año 2015 Marcarián, Leandro Gasto público Equilibrio Pobreza Índice de Desempeño Económico E21 E66 N10 I32 I38 Public Expenditure Equilibrium Poverty Economic Performance Index E21 E66 N10 I32 I38 This paper studies the evolution of the poverty rate in relation to two macroeconomic performance indexes. A first simple index of four variables, called EPI, and another more complex called MRE, composed by the simple average of three sub-indexes, a monetary, a real-fiscal and one that measures the evolution of the external sector. It works under the assumption that the public social expenditure consolidated as a percentage from the GDP has a positive effect on reducing poverty, while macroeconomic instability, measured as a deterioration of the indexes has a negative effect, and the aim is to determine which one of the two dominates. It concludes that the negative effect of macroeconomic instability dominates over the positive effect of the public social expenditure consolidates in 76% of the cases when EPI is used, and a 65% when MRE is used. In turn the chances of success of the indexes, success being understood as the probability that the poverty rate moves in the opposite direction to the indexes, resulted in 74% for the EPI and 68% for the MRE. En este documento se estudia la evolución de la tasa de pobreza en relación a dos índices de desempeño macroeconómico. Un primer índice simple de 4 variables, llamado EPI y otro índice más robusto, llamado MRE, compuesto por el promedio simple de tres sub índices, uno monetario, otro real-fiscal y otro que mide la evolución del sector externo. Se trabaja bajo el supuesto de que el gasto público social consolidado como porcentaje del PBI tiene un efecto positivo en reducir la pobreza, mientras que la inestabilidad macroeconómica, medida como un empeoramiento de los índices tiene un efecto negativo y se busca discernir cual de los efectos domina. Se llega a la conclusión de que el efecto negativo de la inestabilidad macroeconómica domina al efecto positivo del gasto público social consolidado en un 76% de los casos cuando se utiliza el EPI y un 65% cuando se utiliza el MRE. A su vez, las probabilidades de éxito de los índices, entendiendo el éxito como la probabilidad de que la tasa de pobreza se mueva en dirección opuesta a los índices, resultó de 74% para el EPI y de 68% para el MRE. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas 2015-12-29 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Articles Artículos application/pdf https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/14461 Actualidad Económica; Vol. 25 No. 87 (2015): September-December; 9-35 Actualidad Económica; Vol. 25 Núm. 87 (2015): Septiembre - Diciembre; 9-35 2250-754X 0327-585X spa https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/14461/14477 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
institution Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
institution_str I-10
repository_str R-10
container_title_str Revistas de la UNC
language Español
format Artículo revista
topic Gasto público
Equilibrio
Pobreza
Índice de Desempeño Económico
E21
E66
N10
I32
I38
Public Expenditure
Equilibrium
Poverty
Economic Performance Index
E21
E66
N10
I32
I38
spellingShingle Gasto público
Equilibrio
Pobreza
Índice de Desempeño Económico
E21
E66
N10
I32
I38
Public Expenditure
Equilibrium
Poverty
Economic Performance Index
E21
E66
N10
I32
I38
Marcarián, Leandro
Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015
topic_facet Gasto público
Equilibrio
Pobreza
Índice de Desempeño Económico
E21
E66
N10
I32
I38
Public Expenditure
Equilibrium
Poverty
Economic Performance Index
E21
E66
N10
I32
I38
author Marcarián, Leandro
author_facet Marcarián, Leandro
author_sort Marcarián, Leandro
title Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015
title_short Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015
title_full Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015
title_fullStr Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015
title_full_unstemmed Macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015
title_sort macroeconomic stability, consolidated public social spending and its effects on poverty in 2015
description This paper studies the evolution of the poverty rate in relation to two macroeconomic performance indexes. A first simple index of four variables, called EPI, and another more complex called MRE, composed by the simple average of three sub-indexes, a monetary, a real-fiscal and one that measures the evolution of the external sector. It works under the assumption that the public social expenditure consolidated as a percentage from the GDP has a positive effect on reducing poverty, while macroeconomic instability, measured as a deterioration of the indexes has a negative effect, and the aim is to determine which one of the two dominates. It concludes that the negative effect of macroeconomic instability dominates over the positive effect of the public social expenditure consolidates in 76% of the cases when EPI is used, and a 65% when MRE is used. In turn the chances of success of the indexes, success being understood as the probability that the poverty rate moves in the opposite direction to the indexes, resulted in 74% for the EPI and 68% for the MRE.
publisher Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas
publishDate 2015
url https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/14461
work_keys_str_mv AT marcarianleandro macroeconomicstabilityconsolidatedpublicsocialspendinganditseffectsonpovertyin2015
AT marcarianleandro laestabilidadmacroeconomicaelgastopublicosocialconsolidadoysusefectosenlapobrezaano2015
first_indexed 2022-08-20T00:58:44Z
last_indexed 2022-08-20T00:58:44Z
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