Finite-time singularities in the dynamics of hyperinflation in an economy
The dynamics of hyperinflation episodes is studied by applying a theoretical approach based on collective "adaptive inflation expectations" with a positive nonlinear feedback proposed in the literature. In such a description it is assumed that the growth rate of the logarithmic price, r (t...
Guardado en:
| Autor principal: | |
|---|---|
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Capítulo de libro |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
2009
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Registro en Scopus DOI Handle Registro en la Biblioteca Digital |
| Aporte de: | Registro referencial: Solicitar el recurso aquí |
| LEADER | 07899caa a22008297a 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | PAPER-8565 | ||
| 003 | AR-BaUEN | ||
| 005 | 20230518203822.0 | ||
| 008 | 190411s2009 xx ||||fo|||| 00| 0 eng|d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |2 scopus |a 2-s2.0-69449098250 | |
| 040 | |a Scopus |b spa |c AR-BaUEN |d AR-BaUEN | ||
| 030 | |a PLEEE | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Szybisz, M.A. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Finite-time singularities in the dynamics of hyperinflation in an economy |
| 260 | |c 2009 | ||
| 270 | 1 | 0 | |m Szybisz, L.; Laboratorio TANDAR, Departamento de Física, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Av. del Libertador 8250, RA-1429 Buenos Aires, Argentina; email: szybisz@tandar.cnea.gov.ar |
| 506 | |2 openaire |e Política editorial | ||
| 504 | |a Moss De Oliveira, S., De Oliveira, P.M.C., Stauffer, D., (1999) Evolution, Money, War, and Computers, , Teubner, Stuttgart, Leipzig | ||
| 504 | |a Mantegna, R.N., Stanley, H.E., (1999) An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance, , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England | ||
| 504 | |a Sornette, D., (2003) Why Stock Markets Crash (Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems), , Princeton University Press, Princeton | ||
| 504 | |a Mizuno, T., Takayasu, M., Takayasu, H., (2002) Physica A, 308, p. 411. , 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)00598-8 | ||
| 504 | |a Sornette, D., Takayasu, H., Zhou, W.-X., (2003) Physica A, 325, p. 492. , 10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00247-4 | ||
| 504 | |a Cagan, P., (1956) Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, , edited by M. Friedman (University of Chicago Press, Chicago | ||
| 504 | |a Olivera, J.H.G., (1967) Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 20, p. 258 | ||
| 504 | |a Tanzi, V., (1977) IMF Staff Papers, 24, p. 154 | ||
| 504 | |a Tanzi, V., (1978) IMF Staff Papers, 25, p. 417 | ||
| 504 | |a Canavese, A.J., Heymann, D., (1992) Q. Rev. Econ. Finance, 32, p. 100 | ||
| 504 | |a Anušić, Z., Švaljek, S., http://www.eizg.hr/AdminLite/FCKeditor/UserFiles/File/ ces3-anusic-svaljek.pdf; Eguiluz, V.M., Zimmermann, M.G., (2000) Phys. Rev. Lett., 85, p. 5659. , 10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.5659 | ||
| 504 | |a Szybisz, M.A., Szybisz, L., arXiv:0802:3553; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2002/01/data/index.htm, Table of the International Monetary Fund; Moffatt, H.K., (2000) Nature (London), 404, p. 833. , 10.1038/35009017 | ||
| 504 | |a Bhattacharjee, A., Wang, X., (1992) Phys. Rev. Lett., 69, p. 2196. , 10.1103/PhysRevLett.69.2196; | ||
| 504 | |a Bhattacharjee, A., Ng, C.S., Wang, X., (1995) Phys. Rev. e, 52, p. 5110. , 10.1103/PhysRevE.52.5110 | ||
| 504 | |a Vrabec, J., Kedia, G.K., Fuchs, G., Hasse, H., (2006) Mol. Phys., 104, p. 1509. , 10.1080/00268970600556774 | ||
| 504 | |a Widom, A., (1971) Phys. Rev. A, 3, p. 2042. , 10.1103/PhysRevA.3.2042 | ||
| 504 | |a Bevington, P.R., (1969) Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, , McGraw Hill, New York | ||
| 504 | |a Press, W.H., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, W.T., Flannery, B.P., (1996) Numerical Recipes in Fortran 77, , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge | ||
| 504 | |a Petrović, P., Mladenović, Z., (2000) J. Money, Credit, Banking, 32, p. 785. , 10.2307/2601183 | ||
| 504 | |a Nielsen, B., http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2004/w31/NielsenYugo.pdf; Tables of the Central Statistical Office and Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe; Garganas, N.C., (2003), http://www.bis.org/review/r031113d.pdf; Palairet, M., (2002) The Four Ends of the Greek Hyperinflation of 1941-1946, , Museum Tusculanum Press, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen | ||
| 504 | |a Lykogiannis, A., (2002) Britain and the Greek Economic Crisis, 1944-1947: From Liberation to the Truman Doctrine, , University of Missouri Press, Columbia | ||
| 504 | |a Juselius, K., Mladenović, Z., (2002); Chao, T., http://tomchao.com/hb.html; Makochekanwa, A., http://web.up.ac.za/UserFiles/WP_2007_10.pdf; Keynes, J.M., (1920) The Economic Consequences of Peace, , Macmillan Press, London | ||
| 504 | |a (1930) A Treatise on Money, 12. , Harcourt, Brace and Co., New York | ||
| 504 | |a (1936) The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, , Macmillan and Co., London | ||
| 504 | |a (1973) The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, , the latter two reprinted in edited by D. E. Moggridge (Macmillan, London | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a The dynamics of hyperinflation episodes is studied by applying a theoretical approach based on collective "adaptive inflation expectations" with a positive nonlinear feedback proposed in the literature. In such a description it is assumed that the growth rate of the logarithmic price, r (t), changes with a velocity obeying a power law which leads to a finite-time singularity at a critical time tc. By revising that model we found that, indeed, there are two types of singular solutions for the logarithmic price, p (t). One is given by the already reported form p (t) (tc -t) -α (with α>0) and the other exhibits a logarithmic divergence, p (t)ln [1/ (tc -t)]. The singularity is a signature for an economic crash. In the present work we express p (t) explicitly in terms of the parameters introduced throughout the formulation avoiding the use of any combination of them defined in the original paper. This procedure allows to examine simultaneously the time series of r (t) and p (t) performing a linked error analysis of the determined parameters. For the first time this approach is applied for analyzing the very extreme historical hyperinflations occurred in Greece (1941-1944) and Yugoslavia (1991-1994). The case of Greece is compatible with a logarithmic singularity. The study is completed with an analysis of the hyperinflation spiral currently experienced in Zimbabwe. According to our results, an economic crash in this country is predicted for these days. The robustness of the results to changes of the initial time of the series and the differences with a linear feedback are discussed. © 2009 The American Physical Society. |l eng | |
| 593 | |a Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Av. Córdoba 2122, RA-1120 Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
| 593 | |a Laboratorio TANDAR, Departamento de Física, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica, Av. del Libertador 8250, RA-1429 Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
| 593 | |a Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Ciudad Universitaria, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
| 593 | |a Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Av. Rivadavia 1917, RA-1033 Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a CRITICAL TIME |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a FINITE TIME SINGULARITY |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a INITIAL TIME |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a LINEAR FEEDBACK |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a LOGARITHMIC DIVERGENCE |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a LOGARITHMIC SINGULARITY |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a NONLINEAR FEEDBACK |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a POWER LAW |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a SINGULAR SOLUTIONS |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a THEORETICAL APPROACH |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a ERROR ANALYSIS |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a TIME SERIES |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a TIME SERIES ANALYSIS |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |2 spines |a YUGOSLAVIA |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |2 spines |a ZIMBABWE |
| 700 | 1 | |a Szybisz, L. | |
| 773 | 0 | |d 2009 |g v. 80 |k n. 2 |p Phys. Rev. E Stat. Nonlinear Soft Matter Phys. |x 15393755 |t Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |u https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-69449098250&doi=10.1103%2fPhysRevE.80.026116&partnerID=40&md5=9b9f54194da3a0171a1bc5edfe0c6c5d |y Registro en Scopus |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.80.026116 |y DOI |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15393755_v80_n2_p_Szybisz |y Handle |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_15393755_v80_n2_p_Szybisz |y Registro en la Biblioteca Digital |
| 961 | |a paper_15393755_v80_n2_p_Szybisz |b paper |c PE | ||
| 962 | |a info:eu-repo/semantics/article |a info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo |b info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | ||
| 963 | |a VARI | ||
| 999 | |c 69518 | ||