Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate

The dynamical basis for seasonal to decadal climate predictions and predictability over South America is reviewed. It is shown that, while global tropical SSTs affect both predictability and predictions over South America, the current lack of SST predictability over the tropical Atlantic represents...

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Autor principal: Nobre, P.
Otros Autores: Marengo, José Alberto, Cavalcanti, I.F.A, Obregon, G., Barros, V., Camilloni, I., Campos, N., Ferreira, A.G
Formato: Capítulo de libro
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2006
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245 1 0 |a Seasonal-to-decadal predictability and prediction of South American climate 
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270 1 0 |m Nobre, P.Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, SP 12630-000, Brazil; email: pnobre@cptec.inpe.br 
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506 |2 openaire  |e Política editorial 
520 3 |a The dynamical basis for seasonal to decadal climate predictions and predictability over South America is reviewed. It is shown that, while global tropical SSTs affect both predictability and predictions over South America, the current lack of SST predictability over the tropical Atlantic represents a limiting factor to seasonal climate predictions over some parts of the continent. The model's skill varies with the continental region: the highest skill is found in the "Nordeste" region and the lowest skill over southeastern Brazil. It is also suggested that current two-tier approaches to predict seasonal climate variations might represent a major limitation to forecast coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena like the South Atlantic convergence zone. Also discussed are the possible effects of global climate change on regional predictability of seasonal climate. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.  |l eng 
593 |a CPTEC, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil 
593 |a UBA, CIMA, CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina 
593 |a FUNCEME, Fortaleza, Brazil 
593 |a Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, SP 12630-000, Brazil 
651 4 |a SOUTH AMERICA 
690 1 0 |a ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE 
690 1 0 |a CLIMATE CHANGE 
690 1 0 |a WEATHER FORECASTING 
690 1 0 |a CLIMATE PREDICTIONS 
690 1 0 |a CLIMATE VARIATIONS 
690 1 0 |a DECADAL CLIMATE 
690 1 0 |a SEASONAL CLIMATE 
690 1 0 |a CLIMATOLOGY 
690 1 0 |a ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING 
690 1 0 |a CLIMATE CHANGE 
690 1 0 |a CLIMATE MODELING 
690 1 0 |a CLIMATE PREDICTION 
690 1 0 |a DECADAL VARIATION 
690 1 0 |a GLOBAL CHANGE 
690 1 0 |a SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
690 1 0 |a SEASONAL VARIATION 
690 1 0 |a ATLANTIC OCEAN 
690 1 0 |a ATLANTIC OCEAN (SOUTH) 
690 1 0 |a BRAZIL 
700 1 |a Marengo, José Alberto 
700 1 |a Cavalcanti, I.F.A. 
700 1 |a Obregon, G. 
700 1 |a Barros, V. 
700 1 |a Camilloni, I. 
700 1 |a Campos, N. 
700 1 |a Ferreira, A.G. 
773 0 |d 2006  |g v. 19  |h pp. 5988-6004  |k n. 23  |p J. Clim.  |x 08948755  |w (AR-BaUEN)CENRE-5480  |t Journal of Climate 
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