Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models
This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no sign...
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2013
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| LEADER | 18325caa a22012137a 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | PAPER-11369 | ||
| 003 | AR-BaUEN | ||
| 005 | 20230518204130.0 | ||
| 008 | 190411s2013 xx ||||fo|||| 00| 0 eng|d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |2 scopus |a 2-s2.0-84881028415 | |
| 040 | |a Scopus |b spa |c AR-BaUEN |d AR-BaUEN | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Blázquez, J. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Analysis of uncertainties in future climate projections for South America: Comparison of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 models |
| 260 | |c 2013 | ||
| 270 | 1 | 0 | |m Blázquez, J.; Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/FCENUBA), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina; email: blazquez@cima.fcen.uba.ar |
| 506 | |2 openaire |e Política editorial | ||
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| 520 | 3 | |a This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. |l eng | |
| 593 | |a Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA-CONICET/FCENUBA), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
| 593 | |a Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (FCEN-UBA), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
| 593 | |a Instituto Franco Argentino del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS), Ciudad Universitaria Pabellón II Piso 2, C1428EGA, Buenos Aires, Argentina | ||
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a CMIP3 MODELS |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a CMIP5 MODELS |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a PROJECTIONS |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a UNCERTAINTIES |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a CLIMATE MODELING |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a CLIMATE PREDICTION |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY) |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a RELIABILITY ANALYSIS |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a WEATHER FORECASTING |
| 690 | 1 | 0 | |a BRAZIL |
| 651 | 4 | |a SOUTH AMERICA | |
| 651 | 4 | |a ARGENTINA | |
| 651 | 4 | |a PARAGUAY | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Nuñez, M.N. | |
| 773 | 0 | |d 2013 |g v. 41 |h pp. 1039-1056 |k n. 3-4 |p Clim. Dyn. |x 09307575 |w (AR-BaUEN)CENRE-567 |t Climate Dynamics | |
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| 963 | |a VARI | ||
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