Economic forecasting /
"Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk t...
Guardado en:
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| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Libro |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Princeton ; Oxford :
Princeton University Press,
c2016.
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| Materias: | |
| Aporte de: | Registro referencial: Solicitar el recurso aquí |
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| 008 | 210316s2016 njua b 001 0 eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 9780691140131 | ||
| 020 | |a 0691140138 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1241980650 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)on1241980650 | ||
| 040 | |a U@S |b spa |c U@S | ||
| 049 | |a U@SA | ||
| 050 | 4 | |a HB3730 |b .E53 2016 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Elliott, Graham. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting / |c Graham Elliott and Allan Timmermann. |
| 260 | |a Princeton ; |a Oxford : |b Princeton University Press, |c c2016. | ||
| 300 | |a xiv, 552 p. : |b il. ; |c 26 cm. | ||
| 504 | |a Incluye referencias bibliográficas (p. 517-538) e índice. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Preface -- I. Foundations: 1. Introduction -- 2. Loss functions -- 3. The parametric forecasting problem -- 4. Classical estimation of forecasting models -- 5. Bayesian forecasting methods -- 6. Model selection -- II. Forecast methods: 7. Univariate linear prediction models -- 8. Univariate nonlinear prediction models -- 9. Vector autoregressions -- 10. Forecasting in a data-rich environment -- 11. Nonparametric forecasting methods -- 12. Binary forecasts -- 13. Volatility and density forecasting -- 14. Forecast combinations -- III. Forecast evaluation: 15. Desirable properties of forecasts -- 16. Evaluation of individual forecasts -- 17. Evaluation and comparison of multiple forecasts -- 18. Evaluating density forecasts -- IV. Refinements and extensions: 19. Forecasting under model instability -- 20. Trending variables and forecasting -- 21. Forecasting nonstandard data -- Appendix: Kalman filter ; Kalman filter equations ; Orders of probability ; Brownian motion and functional central limit theory. | |
| 520 | |a "Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance." --Descripción del editor. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Finance |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Pronósticos económicos. |2 UDESA | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Pronósticos económicos |x Modelos econométricos. |2 UDESA | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Finanzas |x Modelos econométricos. |2 UDESA | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Timmermann, Allan. | |