simulation Bayesian analysis FUNCIONES PARAMETRICAS MODELO DE MARKOV MODELO DE RICHARDSON MODELOS ESTOCASTICOS PERCEPTRONES MULTICAPA REDES NEURONALES REDES RECURRENTES SIMPLES artificial neural network climate change precipitation (climatology) Markov chain South America atmosphere-ocean coupling atmospheric general circulation model climate conditions climate forcing climate modeling climate prediction data set empirical analysis greenhouse gas oceanic general circulation model rainfall transfer function twenty first century