An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends

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We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extre...

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Autores principales: Marengo, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O., Renom, M.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
Dry spells
Extreme rainfall
Extreme temperature indices
Global models
Heavy rainfall
Historical simulation
Historical trends
Intercomparisons
Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
La Plata basin
Rainfall extremes
Regional pattern
South America
Spatial distribution
Time and space
Twentieth century
Warm nights
Climate models
Rain
Size distribution
Climate change
climate modeling
extreme event
historical record
precipitation intensity
spatial distribution
temperature profile
trend analysis
twentieth century
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
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spelling todo:paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo2023-10-03T15:02:28Z An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends Marengo, J.A. Rusticucci, M. Penalba, O. Renom, M. Dry spells Extreme rainfall Extreme temperature indices Global models Heavy rainfall Historical simulation Historical trends Intercomparisons Intergovernmental panel on climate changes La Plata basin Rainfall extremes Regional pattern South America Spatial distribution Time and space Twentieth century Warm nights Climate models Rain Size distribution Climate change climate modeling extreme event historical record precipitation intensity spatial distribution temperature profile trend analysis twentieth century South America We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extremes, we compare observed and modeled trends in time and space, including the direction and significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 10° S. The climate extremes described warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The reliability of the GCM simulations is suggested by similarity between observations and simulations in the case of warm nights and extreme rainfall in some regions. For any specific extreme temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in the interior of tropical and subtropical South America. The differences are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall are evident. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009. Fil:Rusticucci, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Penalba, O. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Renom, M. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic Dry spells
Extreme rainfall
Extreme temperature indices
Global models
Heavy rainfall
Historical simulation
Historical trends
Intercomparisons
Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
La Plata basin
Rainfall extremes
Regional pattern
South America
Spatial distribution
Time and space
Twentieth century
Warm nights
Climate models
Rain
Size distribution
Climate change
climate modeling
extreme event
historical record
precipitation intensity
spatial distribution
temperature profile
trend analysis
twentieth century
South America
spellingShingle Dry spells
Extreme rainfall
Extreme temperature indices
Global models
Heavy rainfall
Historical simulation
Historical trends
Intercomparisons
Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
La Plata basin
Rainfall extremes
Regional pattern
South America
Spatial distribution
Time and space
Twentieth century
Warm nights
Climate models
Rain
Size distribution
Climate change
climate modeling
extreme event
historical record
precipitation intensity
spatial distribution
temperature profile
trend analysis
twentieth century
South America
Marengo, J.A.
Rusticucci, M.
Penalba, O.
Renom, M.
An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
topic_facet Dry spells
Extreme rainfall
Extreme temperature indices
Global models
Heavy rainfall
Historical simulation
Historical trends
Intercomparisons
Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
La Plata basin
Rainfall extremes
Regional pattern
South America
Spatial distribution
Time and space
Twentieth century
Warm nights
Climate models
Rain
Size distribution
Climate change
climate modeling
extreme event
historical record
precipitation intensity
spatial distribution
temperature profile
trend analysis
twentieth century
South America
description We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extremes, we compare observed and modeled trends in time and space, including the direction and significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 10° S. The climate extremes described warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The reliability of the GCM simulations is suggested by similarity between observations and simulations in the case of warm nights and extreme rainfall in some regions. For any specific extreme temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in the interior of tropical and subtropical South America. The differences are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall are evident. © Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009.
format JOUR
author Marengo, J.A.
Rusticucci, M.
Penalba, O.
Renom, M.
author_facet Marengo, J.A.
Rusticucci, M.
Penalba, O.
Renom, M.
author_sort Marengo, J.A.
title An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_short An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_full An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_fullStr An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_full_unstemmed An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: Part 2: Historical trends
title_sort intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_01650009_v98_n3_p509_Marengo
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