Modelling interventions during a dengue outbreak
We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considers the co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (human population), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution of an epidemic outbreak. We observ...
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| Autores principales: | , , |
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2014
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| Acceso en línea: | https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/paper/document/paper_09502688_v142_n3_p545_Barmak http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_09502688_v142_n3_p545_Barmak |
| Aporte de: |
| Sumario: | We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considers the co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (human population), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution of an epidemic outbreak. We observed that imposing restrictions on the movement of infected humans is not a highly effective strategy. In contrast, isolating infected individuals with high levels of compliance by the human population is efficient even when implemented with delays during an ongoing outbreak. We also studied insecticide-spraying strategies assuming different (hypothetical) efficiencies. We observed that highly efficient fumigation strategies seem to be effective during an outbreak. Nevertheless, taking into account the controversial results on the use of spraying as a single control strategy, we suggest that carrying out combined strategies of fumigation and isolation during an epidemic outbreak should account for a suitable strategy for the attenuation of epidemic outbreaks. © 2013 Cambridge University Press. |
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