Sustained investment surges
Existing empirical studies have mainly focused on determinants of average investment levels. Instead, we investigate episodes of accelerated capital stock growth having a duration of eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low-growth regions, but more so in middle...
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | en_US |
| Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2019
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://repositorio.cedes.org/handle/123456789/4491 https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpy071 |
| Aporte de: |
| Sumario: | Existing empirical studies have mainly focused on determinants of average investment levels. Instead, we investigate episodes of accelerated capital stock growth having a duration of eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low-growth regions, but more so in middle-income and Asian countries. After identifying 175 episodes between 1950 and 2014, we employ probit analysis to explore their characteristics. Turning points in investment tend to be preceded by macroeconomic stability, real exchange rate undervaluation, and net capital outflows (especially portfolio outflows). We also find a negative correlation with the capital to output ratio and per capita GDP, and a positive correlation with a human capital index. Investment surges tend to be associated with changes in the trade balance and, to a (statistically) weaker extent, with structural change. |
|---|