Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018)

This paper tests for the cyclical implications of the external constraint in Argentina from 1930 to 2018, and investigates the responses of GDP, real wages, trade balance, and external debt to external trade shocks using a recursive vector-autoregressive model. Moreover, considering the shift in dev...

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Autor principal: Catelén, Ana Laura
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Cambridge University Press 2025
Materias:
Ciclos Económicos
Balanza Comercial
Vulnerabilidad Externa
Acceso en línea:https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4364/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4364/1/catelen-2025.pdf
Aporte de:
Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP) de Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
id I29-R135-4364
record_format dspace
spelling I29-R135-43642025-08-08T14:37:59Z Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018) Catelén, Ana Laura This paper tests for the cyclical implications of the external constraint in Argentina from 1930 to 2018, and investigates the responses of GDP, real wages, trade balance, and external debt to external trade shocks using a recursive vector-autoregressive model. Moreover, considering the shift in development strategy in 1976, marked by the transition from state-led industrialization to deregulation and trade openness, changes in external vulnerability are analyzed. Results confirm a trade balance bottleneck hindering future growth, and that external debt fails to spur short-term growth or improve the purchasing power of the population, thereby confirming the vicious cyclical dynamics of stop-and-go and go-and-crash for the entire period. Also, real external vulnerability grew significantly after 1976, as evidenced by the fact that the cumulative impact of movements in the terms of trade and external demand rose from explaining 30% to 43% of GDP variation. En este trabajo se examinan las implicancias cíclicas de la restricción externa en Argentina en el período 1930-2018 y se analiza la respuesta del PIB, los salarios reales, la balanza comercial y la deuda externa a los shocks comerciales externos utilizando un modelo vectorial autorregresivo recursivo. Además, teniendo en cuenta el cambio en la estrategia de desarrollo en 1976, marcado por la transición de la industrialización dirigida por el Estado a la desregulación y la apertura comercial, se analizan los cambios en la vulnerabilidad externa. Los resultados confirman la existencia de un cuello de botella en la balanza comercial que obstaculiza el crecimiento futuro, y que la deuda externa no consigue estimular el crecimiento a corto plazo ni mejorar el poder adquisitivo de la población, lo que confirma las dinámicas cíclicas viciosas de stop-and-go y go-and-crash durante todo el periodo. Además, la vulnerabilidad externa real creció significativamente después de 1976, como lo demuestra el hecho de que el impacto acumulado de los movimientos en la relación de intercambio y de la demanda externa pasó de explicar el 30% al 43% de la variación del PIB. Cambridge University Press 2025-07-21 https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4364/ application/pdf eng https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4364/1/catelen-2025.pdf Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History. ISSN 2041-3335. 10.1017/S0212610925100591 <https://doi.org/10.1017/S0212610925100591> Argentina 1930–2018 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S0212610925100591 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Fil: Catelén, Ana Laura. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; España. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina. Ciclos Económicos Balanza Comercial Vulnerabilidad Externa info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
institution Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
institution_str I-29
repository_str R-135
collection Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP)
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Ciclos Económicos
Balanza Comercial
Vulnerabilidad Externa
spellingShingle Ciclos Económicos
Balanza Comercial
Vulnerabilidad Externa
Catelén, Ana Laura
Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018)
topic_facet Ciclos Económicos
Balanza Comercial
Vulnerabilidad Externa
description This paper tests for the cyclical implications of the external constraint in Argentina from 1930 to 2018, and investigates the responses of GDP, real wages, trade balance, and external debt to external trade shocks using a recursive vector-autoregressive model. Moreover, considering the shift in development strategy in 1976, marked by the transition from state-led industrialization to deregulation and trade openness, changes in external vulnerability are analyzed. Results confirm a trade balance bottleneck hindering future growth, and that external debt fails to spur short-term growth or improve the purchasing power of the population, thereby confirming the vicious cyclical dynamics of stop-and-go and go-and-crash for the entire period. Also, real external vulnerability grew significantly after 1976, as evidenced by the fact that the cumulative impact of movements in the terms of trade and external demand rose from explaining 30% to 43% of GDP variation.
format Artículo
Artículo
publishedVersion
author Catelén, Ana Laura
author_facet Catelén, Ana Laura
author_sort Catelén, Ana Laura
title Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018)
title_short Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018)
title_full Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018)
title_fullStr Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018)
title_full_unstemmed Cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in Argentina (1930–2018)
title_sort cyclical implications of the balance-of-payments constraint in argentina (1930–2018)
publisher Cambridge University Press
publishDate 2025
url https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4364/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4364/1/catelen-2025.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT catelenanalaura cyclicalimplicationsofthebalanceofpaymentsconstraintinargentina19302018
_version_ 1842217612275089408

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