Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark

In the 2010s, Denmark registered sustained current account surpluses of an average of 8% of gross domestic product (GDP). In trying to explain the nature and causes of this extraordinary performance, recent studies have pointed to a temporary change in the private sector’s financial behavior as the...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup, Valdecantos, Sebastián
Formato: Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Taylor and Francis 2024
Materias:
Cuentas Corrientes
Modelo de Flujos y Stocks Consistentes
Acceso en línea:https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4310/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4310/1/byrialsen-valdecantos-2024.pdf
Aporte de:
Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP) de Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
id I29-R135-4310
record_format dspace
spelling I29-R135-43102025-05-14T14:51:59Z Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup Valdecantos, Sebastián In the 2010s, Denmark registered sustained current account surpluses of an average of 8% of gross domestic product (GDP). In trying to explain the nature and causes of this extraordinary performance, recent studies have pointed to a temporary change in the private sector’s financial behavior as the main driver. However, descriptive analysis of the balance of payments shows that the improvement of the current account in the 2010s has been driven by three main elements: (i) the increase in real net exports, (ii) the increase in terms of trade, and (iii) the improvement in the income account. This article explores how the current account balance and the net lending of the Danish private sector would have evolved under alternative scenarios for these three elements. This is done through an empirical quarterly structural macroeconomic model for the period 2005–20, which we use to make counterfactual analyses. We find that, although part of the increase in the current account is due to an increase in domestic savings, as recent studies suggest, the effect of factors specifically related to the external sector has also been significant. Hence, the findings of this article suggest that the high current account surplus of Denmark is more a structural phenomenon than a temporary one, as official reports have been claiming thus far. Taylor and Francis 2024-12-02 https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4310/ application/pdf eng https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4310/1/byrialsen-valdecantos-2024.pdf International Journal of Political Economy, 53(4), 364-408. ISSN 1558-0970. 10.1080/08911916.2024.2412977 <https://doi.org/10.1080/08911916.2024.2412977> Dinamarca info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/08911916.2024.2412977 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Fil: Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup. Aalborg University. MaMTEP. Aalborg University Business School; Denmark. Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Aalborg University. MaMTEP. Aalborg University Business School; Denmark. Cuentas Corrientes Modelo de Flujos y Stocks Consistentes info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.es
institution Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
institution_str I-29
repository_str R-135
collection Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP)
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Cuentas Corrientes
Modelo de Flujos y Stocks Consistentes
spellingShingle Cuentas Corrientes
Modelo de Flujos y Stocks Consistentes
Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup
Valdecantos, Sebastián
Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark
topic_facet Cuentas Corrientes
Modelo de Flujos y Stocks Consistentes
description In the 2010s, Denmark registered sustained current account surpluses of an average of 8% of gross domestic product (GDP). In trying to explain the nature and causes of this extraordinary performance, recent studies have pointed to a temporary change in the private sector’s financial behavior as the main driver. However, descriptive analysis of the balance of payments shows that the improvement of the current account in the 2010s has been driven by three main elements: (i) the increase in real net exports, (ii) the increase in terms of trade, and (iii) the improvement in the income account. This article explores how the current account balance and the net lending of the Danish private sector would have evolved under alternative scenarios for these three elements. This is done through an empirical quarterly structural macroeconomic model for the period 2005–20, which we use to make counterfactual analyses. We find that, although part of the increase in the current account is due to an increase in domestic savings, as recent studies suggest, the effect of factors specifically related to the external sector has also been significant. Hence, the findings of this article suggest that the high current account surplus of Denmark is more a structural phenomenon than a temporary one, as official reports have been claiming thus far.
format Artículo
Artículo
publishedVersion
author Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup
Valdecantos, Sebastián
author_facet Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup
Valdecantos, Sebastián
author_sort Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup
title Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark
title_short Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark
title_full Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark
title_fullStr Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark
title_full_unstemmed Saving to build wealth? An empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in Denmark
title_sort saving to build wealth? an empirical analysis of the high (and increasing) current account surplus in denmark
publisher Taylor and Francis
publishDate 2024
url https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4310/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4310/1/byrialsen-valdecantos-2024.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT byrialsenmikaelrandrup savingtobuildwealthanempiricalanalysisofthehighandincreasingcurrentaccountsurplusindenmark
AT valdecantossebastian savingtobuildwealthanempiricalanalysisofthehighandincreasingcurrentaccountsurplusindenmark
_version_ 1833882708497924096

Ejemplares similares