Producción de leche en Argentina: un análisis de los quiebres estructurales para predicción
There are many reasons why the Argentinian dairy chain is relevant for the national economy: the added value generated, the foreign currency entry from exports and the labor requirements. In addition, it produces a variety of products which are rooted in the country’s idiosyncrasy,...
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| Formato: | Artículo revista |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
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Ediciones UNL
2019
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| Acceso en línea: | https://bibliotecavirtual.unl.edu.ar/publicaciones/index.php/CE/article/view/8357 |
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| Sumario: | There are many reasons why the Argentinian dairy chain is relevant for the national economy: the added value generated, the foreign currency entry from exports and the labor requirements. In addition, it produces a variety of products which are rooted in the country’s idiosyncrasy, that are essential for healthy nutrition and therefore included in consumers’ basic foodbasket. For these reasons, there are sectorial policies implemented by the Government in order to contain domestic prices or to soften the effects of natural events. The sector has been going through many crises while facing processes of change in its structure and functioning for many years. The primary link of the chain is a critical part of the process and, although the sector claims mainly for the prices received, the process of concentration and the effects on the competitiveness of the sector are currently of great interest. In this context, this article is based on the univariate time series model of the Argentinian production of raw milk between 1983 and 2016, by using the Box-Jekins methodology. Besides, a structural breaks test is carried out, within the context of events and policies at the moment of analysis. Then the model is used to predict future evolution. As a result, three structural breaks have been found: the first one at the beginning of the 90s; the second one in the late 90s and the third one by the end of 2003. The model enables us to predict an evolution similar to the current situation and to foretell a moderate recovery of production for the end of the year. |
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