Tipo de cambio real, desempeño macroeconómico y social bajo dolarización
This paper is based in a simultaneous equations econometric model -estimated with the help of genetic algorithms- for the depiction of the Ecuadorian economy functioning. The structural model links the traditional macroeconomic relationships with the evolution of social conditions, generally omitted...
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| Formato: | Objeto de conferencia |
| Lenguaje: | Español |
| Publicado: |
2003
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| Acceso en línea: | http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/3821 http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/reunion_desigualdad/trabajo10.pdf |
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| Sumario: | This paper is based in a simultaneous equations econometric model -estimated with the help of genetic algorithms- for the depiction of the Ecuadorian economy functioning. The structural model links the traditional macroeconomic relationships with the evolution of social conditions, generally omitted on this regard. The model purposes, with favorable econometric evidence, that aside the known rapports of poverty with growth and inflation, there is a very important impact of the variation of key prices like the exchange rate and the minimum wage, even in the short-run. Besides, there exists a two-way influence: social conditions also affect macroeconomic performance via price formation, fiscal impacts and evolution of country-risk premium.
Departing from the discussion of the short-run dynamic effects of nominal devaluations on growth, inflation, poverty, interest rates and external and fiscal balances, it is possible to address the dynamics of the real exchange rate, exploring the transmission mechanisms of nominal devaluations and the effects of other instruments of economic policy.
Using optimal control techniques, I present a game-theoretical framework in which the coalition acting as policy-maker plays a la Stackelberg exploring the possibilities for defending targets of real exchange rate under the severe restrictions that dollarization imposes in Ecuador. Even though the margin of action is pretty narrow, it is possible to characterize alternative kinds of policies that could reduce partially the contractionary effects of more orthodox packages. |
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