Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017)

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The present research work develops a model of autoregressive vectors (VAR) to evaluate the hypothesis of Dutch disease in the Ecuadorian economy in the last decade based on the available historical data (2000-2017). The main symptoms of this economic phenomenon were analyzed empirically. The methodo...

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Autor principal: Desfrancois, Pierre Gilles Fernand
Formato: Artículo revista
Lenguaje:Español
Publicado: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas 2019
Materias:
Macroeconomía
Enfermedad Holandesa
Evaluación empírica
Política Pública
Bonanza Petrolera
F4
O13
O14
O54
Macroeconomy
Dutch disease
Empirical evaluation
Public politics
Oil Boom
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/24270
Aporte de:
Revistas de la UNC de Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
id I10-R10-article-24270
record_format ojs
spelling I10-R10-article-242702022-08-21T23:56:30Z Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017) Evaluación Empírica de los Síntomas de la Enfermedad Holandesa en la Historia Ecuatoriana Reciente (2007-2017) Desfrancois, Pierre Gilles Fernand Macroeconomía Enfermedad Holandesa Evaluación empírica Política Pública Bonanza Petrolera F4 O13 O14 O54 Macroeconomy Dutch disease Empirical evaluation Public politics Oil Boom F4 O13 O14 O54 The present research work develops a model of autoregressive vectors (VAR) to evaluate the hypothesis of Dutch disease in the Ecuadorian economy in the last decade based on the available historical data (2000-2017). The main symptoms of this economic phenomenon were analyzed empirically. The methodology used was a VAR model that collects the interactions between the main economic variables. The impulse response functions were estimated to measure the symptoms of the Dutch disease in Ecuador. The methodology allows to quantify the impact of the oil boom on the dynamics of the Ecuadorian economy. The results reaffirm the vulnerability of the national economic dynamics with respect to the volatility of oil revenues. It is estimated that the oil boom causes an income effect, since the oil bonanza has been a determining factor in explaining the country's economic growth, and an expenditure effect that led to an appreciation of the real exchange rate that discourages the activity of the tradable sector of the country. In addition, there are tensions on public finances through increased public spending and the trade balance due to the increase in imports, concluding that the oil boom caused fiscal and commercial imbalances in the country. El presente trabajo de investigación desarrolla un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) para evaluar la hipótesis de enfermedad holandesa en la economía ecuatoriana en la última década a partir de los datos históricos recientes (2000-2017). Se analizaron empíricamente los principales síntomas de este fenómeno económico conocido como la maldición de los recursos naturales. La metodología permite cuantificar el impacto de la bonanza petrolera sobre la dinámica de la economía ecuatoriana a partir de las funciones de impulso respuesta. Los resultados reafirman la vulnerabilidad de la dinámica económica nacional con respecto a la volatilidad de los ingresos petroleros. Se estima que la bonanza petrolera conduce a una apreciación del tipo de cambio real que desestimula la actividad del sector transable tradicional de la economía ecuatoriana, evidenciando los efectos gastos y reasignación de recursos. Además, se observan tensiones sobre las finanzas públicas mediante el aumento del gasto público y sobre la balanza comercial debido a un incremento sostenido de las importaciones. Se concluye que la bonanza petrolera ha sido determinante para explicar el crecimiento económico del país y la economía ecuatoriana presenta los principales síntomas de la enfermedad holandesa. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas 2019-05-04 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Articles Artículos application/pdf https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/24270 Actualidad Económica; Vol. 29 No. 97 (2019): January-April; 23-35 Actualidad Económica; Vol. 29 Núm. 97 (2019): Enero - Abril; 23-35 2250-754X 0327-585X spa https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/24270/23649
institution Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
institution_str I-10
repository_str R-10
container_title_str Revistas de la UNC
language Español
format Artículo revista
topic Macroeconomía
Enfermedad Holandesa
Evaluación empírica
Política Pública
Bonanza Petrolera
F4
O13
O14
O54
Macroeconomy
Dutch disease
Empirical evaluation
Public politics
Oil Boom
F4
O13
O14
O54
spellingShingle Macroeconomía
Enfermedad Holandesa
Evaluación empírica
Política Pública
Bonanza Petrolera
F4
O13
O14
O54
Macroeconomy
Dutch disease
Empirical evaluation
Public politics
Oil Boom
F4
O13
O14
O54
Desfrancois, Pierre Gilles Fernand
Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017)
topic_facet Macroeconomía
Enfermedad Holandesa
Evaluación empírica
Política Pública
Bonanza Petrolera
F4
O13
O14
O54
Macroeconomy
Dutch disease
Empirical evaluation
Public politics
Oil Boom
F4
O13
O14
O54
author Desfrancois, Pierre Gilles Fernand
author_facet Desfrancois, Pierre Gilles Fernand
author_sort Desfrancois, Pierre Gilles Fernand
title Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017)
title_short Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017)
title_full Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017)
title_fullStr Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017)
title_full_unstemmed Empirical Evaluation of the Symptoms of Dutch Disease in Recent Ecuadorian History (2007-2017)
title_sort empirical evaluation of the symptoms of dutch disease in recent ecuadorian history (2007-2017)
description The present research work develops a model of autoregressive vectors (VAR) to evaluate the hypothesis of Dutch disease in the Ecuadorian economy in the last decade based on the available historical data (2000-2017). The main symptoms of this economic phenomenon were analyzed empirically. The methodology used was a VAR model that collects the interactions between the main economic variables. The impulse response functions were estimated to measure the symptoms of the Dutch disease in Ecuador. The methodology allows to quantify the impact of the oil boom on the dynamics of the Ecuadorian economy. The results reaffirm the vulnerability of the national economic dynamics with respect to the volatility of oil revenues. It is estimated that the oil boom causes an income effect, since the oil bonanza has been a determining factor in explaining the country's economic growth, and an expenditure effect that led to an appreciation of the real exchange rate that discourages the activity of the tradable sector of the country. In addition, there are tensions on public finances through increased public spending and the trade balance due to the increase in imports, concluding that the oil boom caused fiscal and commercial imbalances in the country.
publisher Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas
publishDate 2019
url https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/24270
work_keys_str_mv AT desfrancoispierregillesfernand empiricalevaluationofthesymptomsofdutchdiseaseinrecentecuadorianhistory20072017
AT desfrancoispierregillesfernand evaluacionempiricadelossintomasdelaenfermedadholandesaenlahistoriaecuatorianareciente20072017
first_indexed 2022-08-20T00:58:55Z
last_indexed 2022-10-04T12:26:00Z
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